Rumors are rife that North Korea is sending troops directly to Ukraine. The initial plan is to send engineers, and then gradually increase the number of troops and deploy regular units. North Korea’s deployment of troops was actually negotiated when they provided weapons, and now it is officially implemented, which is beneficial for both countries. With France representing NATO directly sending troops to participate in the war, Russia’s alliance with North Korea is also a countermeasure. North Korea, with its million-strong army, can easily deploy tens of thousands of troops, and later even increase to more than 100,000. For Russia, North Korean troops can fill battlefield gaps and make up for the lack of manpower. Currently, the engineers are just the first step, similar to the reconnaissance units sent by France, all preparing for full-scale participation in the war later.
For North Korea, sending troops overseas has many benefits. Not only can it obtain scarce foreign exchange, but with its weak national strength, maintaining a million-strong army is a heavy burden. Sending troops to Ukraine can share some of the pressure on the Russian army and reduce North Korea’s burden, as the expenses of North Korean troops in Ukraine are borne by Russia. Due to long-term international sanctions, natural disasters, and food shortages, the supply level within the North Korean army is very low. The daily food supply for ordinary troops is less than 500 grams, with the most common meals being brown rice and soybean paste soup. Even a small amount of vegetables and meat is hard to guarantee. Except for the main and key units, ordinary troops suffer from long-term food shortages, leading to physical weakness, and they can’t even perform basic duties. Moreover, the North Korean economy has been on the verge of collapse due to the pandemic in recent years. Recently, North Korea provided weapons and ammunition to Russia in exchange for urgently needed food, energy, and military technology. Directly sending troops can also reduce the burden on the army, and troops can improve their combat effectiveness in a real combat environment. Therefore, from any perspective, it is beneficial for both sides.
The United States warns that North Korean troops participating in the war are nothing more than cannon fodder and cannot change the course of the war. Objectively speaking, it is better to let North Korean troops be consumed on the Ukrainian battlefield than to let them pose a constant threat on the Korean border. Although North Korean troops have a certain combat capability and strong fighting will, their combat effectiveness is very low according to the requirements of high-tech warfare. This kind of army, facing advanced Western weapons and Ukraine’s superior tactical strikes, has questionable survival ability. Even Russia, the world’s second military power, has suffered over 500,000 casualties and lost a large amount of weapons, equipment, and various supplies in more than two years of war. The Russian army, in terms of military equipment, troop training, combat effectiveness, and combat experience, far surpasses the North Korean army. Given the current state of the war, the Russian army’s combat effectiveness is still so, let alone the poorly equipped, poorly trained, primitive combat concepts, low tactical capabilities, and even underfed North Korean troops.
Although Russia still has an advantage in positional warfare with its manpower and firepower, this advantage is gradually narrowing with the lifting of Western weapon bans and the continuous influx of advanced weapons. As the Russian army is about to lose air superiority, ground offensives will become more difficult, and Russia itself will be continuously attacked. For Russia, the symbolic significance of North Korean troops is greater than their practical effect. The biggest problem for Russia is how many troops North Korea will send. Too few will be ineffective, and a large number of troops may not be realistic for North Korea, as the Korean Peninsula is still in a state of war, and it is impossible to draw a large number of troops overseas. Given the current rate of Russian troop consumption, with over a thousand troops being consumed daily, North Korea may also find it difficult to bear. Therefore, for Kim Jong-un, sending engineers is more about economic benefits than military ones.
However, it must be noted that if North Korea directly engages with Ukrainian troops, it means that North Korea, as an enemy of NATO, will also be directly attacked by the West. This would put North Korea at risk of fighting on two fronts, both on the peninsula and in Ukraine, akin to the Korean War breaking out again. The West might unite with Japan and South Korea to completely resolve the North Korean issue, posing a significant threat to Kim Jong-un’s regime.
