豊田ルナ

 

風吹ケイ

 

外國人説是下面10份工作5年左右就消失其實不可能

 

隨著人工智能（AI）快速發展，全球勞動市場也隨之起了變化。世界經濟論壇（WEF）《未來就業報告》顯示，高達41%的僱主考慮未來將以AI取代部分職位元，美國財經媒體《MoneyTalks News》列出了下列10個預計將在2030年消失的職業，不過裁剪下來的部份員工也許可以轉任其他工作。

1.資料輸入員 

 AI具有強大的數據處理能力，能迅速、精確地完成數據輸入工作，使相關職位面臨被取代的風險。未來，從業人員可轉向監管AI系統，提升數據管理與分析技能，以適應產業變革。

2.法務助理

法律研究與檔審查等重複性工作已逐步被AI自動化工具取代。法務助理可透過學習AI應用，專注於複雜案件解析，或成為AI法律技術專家，以提高職場競爭力。

3.文書人員

辦公室行政與文書工作正在快速自動化。未來，相關人員可透過學習數位管理技能，轉型為企業流程優化與自動化系統管理專家。

4.收銀員

自助結帳系統興起後，傳統收銀員的職位將大幅減少。不過，這些人員可轉型為門市技術支援或客戶服務專員，為消費者提供更個性化的體驗。

5.郵務人員

隨招數位通訊的普及，傳統郵政業務正在萎縮。郵務人員可透過學習物流與配送技術，轉向數位與實體物流整合管理，提升職場適應力。

6.銀行櫃檯人員

AI自動化服務逐步取代銀行櫃員，未來這一職位將轉向財務顧問與客戶關係管理角色，提供更個人化的金融服務。

7.平面設計師

AI繪圖工具快速發展，基本設計工作已自動化處理。設計師若能強化創意構思、品牌策略與用戶體驗設計能力，仍可在市場中保有優勢。

8.會計助理

隨著AI在財務管理領域的應用，傳統會計助理的職責大幅減少。從業者可透過培養數據分析與財務顧問技能，轉型為高階財務專家。

9.電話銷售員

自動語音客服與AI行銷技術的發展使傳統電話行銷角色萎縮。未來，銷售人員可轉向數據分析與AI輔助市場營銷策略規劃，以提高銷售轉換率。

10.製造業裝配工

工廠自動化加速，機械手臂與AI品品檢測系統日益成熟，傳統裝配工逐漸被取代。勞工可轉向設備維護、機器操作與智慧製造管理等新興職位。

 

Eyu Hirayama 平山えゆ

 

錦鯉成雙

 

鋼鐵飛俠

村島未悠

 

Trump's Tariff Tango: From China Smackdown to Screw-Sized Surrender

 

Trump has exempted tariffs on certain electronic products such as computers, mobile phones, and semiconductors. Although not a complete exemption, this was a reluctant move on his part, coming just days after he raised tariffs on China by 145%. In the future, tariffs and rates on various other products will be repeatedly adjusted, exempted, and modified. Electronic products and daily necessities account for a significant share of China-US trade, and Trump’s concessions are, of course, due to internal pressures. His rationale for launching a global trade war is nothing more than ideas gleaned from a few outdated books and personal whims. He is an amateur politician lacking even basic political and economic knowledge, not even qualifying as a politician but rather a mediocre businessman.

The offshoring of manufacturing has been a US national policy since World War II, starting with Japan, then moving to the Asian Tigers, and later to China—a process spanning 80 years. It’s not something Trump can simply reverse with harsh words, tariff hikes, or verbal threats. Moving manufacturing out of China would require significant time to cultivate alternatives, while bringing it back to the US would necessitate rebuilding the manufacturing platform, which would take at least 15 years, a highly conservative estimate. Take Apple’s Tim Cook as an example: he explained that finding senior mold engineers for high-end smartphones in the US would barely fill a conference room, whereas in China, several football fields wouldn’t suffice. Bringing iPhone production entirely back to the US would require 700,000 skilled workers and 35,000 senior engineers, with employees willing to work over 12 hours a day. 

Apple only designs phones, while the supply chain is outside the US, and assembling requires sourcing all parts, even a single screw, from overseas. It’s hard to imagine Americans assembling screws as fine as a strand of hair, which demands a large number of young women with good eyesight working continuously. This is just one typical example in manufacturing; other industries face even greater challenges. Producing a standard household mini-fridge in China costs around $100, which is less than a single day’s wages and benefits for an American worker.

The US now produces nothing except high-tech products; its best product, its largest manufacturing industry, is the US dollar. In China-US trade, the US exports $170 billion in goods to China with over 50% profit margins, while China exports $500 billion to the US with profit margins below 10%. In reality, the US enjoys a significant trade surplus. China-US trade is a win-win: China addresses employment, while the US gains access to affordable, high-quality goods, offsetting inflation caused by excessive money printing. It’s normal for the US to suppress China, but it can only do so through ideological means. Starting a trade war lacks sufficient justification, and the retaliatory measures are extremely foolish. Targeting China requires uniting allies to pressure the biggest beneficiary of global trade. However, by launching a global tariff war, China has become the target of criticism, and the US has isolated itself.

Trump’s trade war aims to divert attention for Russia, buying time to lift sanctions and soften Putin’s image as an aggressor. More importantly, it’s about securing family profits—whether through issuing cryptocurrencies or secretly manipulating the stock market, all are means to scam money. This explains why he uses rhetoric to destabilize US financial markets. His erratic policies and capricious decisions are backed by financial dark pool operations, ultimately funneling money into his accounts. The so-called Russia-Ukraine ceasefire undermines NATO, helping Russia achieve interests it couldn’t on the battlefield. As a long-time strategic asset developed by Russia, Trump has accomplished nearly impossible tasks, reaping astronomical economic rewards. Russian and Putin’s overseas assets will be unfrozen, and Trump, a front for the former Soviet Union, has used his so-called real estate business as a cover for money laundering supported by Russian funds.

Elected again in his late seventies, his goal is not to make America great again but to lead it into decline. The trade war against China will end inconclusively. With so many grand goals and slogans in his three-plus-year term, none will be achieved, nor are they achievable. The China-US trade war will end with a casual remark from Trump, as he and his old friends have already reached an agreement, adding countless sums to his bank account. Moreover, China’s greatest strength internationally has never been manufacturing but its unrivaled ability to deliver benefits. Biden was no exception, and neither is Trump. Trump is now demanding a high price, and the family profits he secures will be even greater. His ultimate plan after this election is to extract money from China, Russia, and the US alike.

 

特朗普發動貿易戰最終目的就是讓他家族成爲世界首富

 

特朗普豁免了部分電腦，手機，半導體等電子產品的關稅，雖然並非全部免除但也是他的無奈之舉，而且是在他提高中國145%之後的幾天之後，今後其他各類產品的關稅和稅額，也將不斷被無數次調整，免除和修改。中美貿易中電子產品和日常用品所占份額很大，特朗普之所以做出讓步，理由當然是受到內部的壓力。他發動全球貿易戰的理據，無非是看了幾本舊書和個人的胡思亂想罷了，他是連基本政經常識都沒有的業餘政治家，甚至根本談不上政治家蹩腳商人而已。

 

製造業外移是美國的國策，從二戰後就開始實行從美國到日本，再到亞洲四小龍，然後是中國，前後經歷了80年之久，不是特朗普現在靠幾句狠話，提高關稅，言語威脅等伎倆，就能將現狀簡單改變的。如果想將製造業移出中國，必須花費大量時間培養取代者，如果想將製造業移回美國，必須先重新打造製造業平臺，這需要最少15年以上的時間，而且還是極其保守的估計。以蘋果庫克爲例，他解釋如要在美國尋找高級手機模具工程師，全國加起來擠不滿一個會議室，但在中國幾個足球場都裝不下。蘋果手機整體回歸美國需要70萬熟練技工，3萬5千名高級工程師，最重要的是員工要願意工作超過12小時以上。蘋果公司只負責設計手機而產業鏈不在美國，組裝需要從海外調達所有零件，哪怕是一個螺絲釘，很難想像美國人能夠組裝很多頭髮絲粗細的螺絲釘，這需要大量年輕視力好的女性連續工作。這只是製造業的其中一個典型例子，其他行業就更毋庸多言了。中國生產一臺普通家用小型冰箱的成本也就1百美元左右，這還不夠美國一個工人工作一天得到的工資和福利。

 

美國現在除了開發高科技產品外，不生產任何東西，美國只生產美元，這才是美國最好的產品，最大的製造業。中美貿易美國出口1700億美金貨品到中國，利潤超過50%，中國出口5000億美元貨品到美國，利潤在10%以下，美國其實是大幅順差。中美貿易是雙贏，中國解決了就業問題，美國得到了物美價廉的商品，而且抵消了濫發貨幣引發的通脹。美國打壓中國很正常，但只能從意識形態出手，通過兩國貿易發難理據不充分，而且報復的手段非常愚蠢，針對中國必須聯合其他盟友，如此才能逼迫全球貿易最大受益者就範。而現在發動全球性關稅貿易戰，中國成了衆矢之的，美國也成了孤家寡人。

 

特朗普打貿易戰的目的是為俄羅斯轉移視綫，為全面解禁爭取時間，淡化普京的侵略者形象。最重要的是撈取家族利益，發行電子貨幣也好，暗中操控股市也罷，就是通過各種手段騙錢，這就是爲何他利用話術，使得美國金融市場如此動蕩的原因，他飄忽不定的政策，不著邊際的決定，背後都涉及金融暗箱操作，最後都會轉化成美金進入他的賬戶。所謂的俄烏停戰瓦解了北約，幫助俄羅斯獲得了戰場上不能得到的利益，作爲俄國發展了多年的戰略間諜，他完成了幾乎不能完成了任務，但爲此他也會得到天量的經濟利益。俄國和普京的海外資產將被解禁，特朗普本就是前蘇聯發展多年的白手套，所謂的房地產業不過是幌子，其實都是靠俄國資金支撐的洗錢罷了。

在他年近八旬垂暮之年再次當選，目標不是爲了美國再次偉大，而是讓美國從此衰敗。針對中國的貿易戰結局也將是虎頭蛇尾，3年多的任期如此多的宏偉目標和口號，一項也不會完成，也不可能完成。中美貿易戰最後會從特朗普突然發出的一句輕描淡寫的話語中結束，他和老朋友早就達成協議結束了，爲此他的銀行賬戶裏又會多出數之不盡的金錢。況且，中國在國際上最擅長的從來就不是製造業，而是無往不勝的利益輸送，拜登如此特朗普也一樣。現在特朗普開價甚高，最後他獲得的家族利益將更大，從中俄美拿錢才是他這次當選後的最大盤算。

平山えゆ