Tomoe Yamanaka 山中知恵

 

Rio Uzuki 兎月りお

 

烏克蘭大反攻是假打真發財做給西方看

 

最近被寄予厚望的烏克蘭大反攻，打成膠著沒有取得特別有效的進展。俄烏戰爭發展到現在俄軍從開始的全面進攻，到重點進攻，再到現在的被動防禦，事實上整個冬季俄軍利用巴赫穆特吸引烏克蘭軍主力與瓦格納展開血腥的陣地戰，但自身卻利用時間在烏克蘭東部和南部，進行了全面系統的防禦體系建設，其中包括埋設大量地雷，挖掘戰壕數道陣地，建立堅固防禦工事等等，導致烏克蘭的反攻變成陣地戰，俄軍在炮火配合下基本頂住了烏軍的進攻，相反烏軍非但沒有形成有效突破而且還造成了一定損失。

 

雖然發生了瓦格納雇傭軍叛變和其他叛軍攻入俄羅斯本土等插曲，但本次大反攻沒有達到預期效果。只要俄軍再能守2個多月，等到了9月底和10月初進入冬季，雙方的軍事行動受到氣候的限制，如此俄羅斯就可以將戰爭拖到明年。客觀上說從2014年開始戰爭已經經歷了十年，俄羅斯在東部和南部地區建立了相當規模的防禦體系，烏克蘭在不掌握空優的情況靠硬沖很難湊效，堅固的防禦配合充足的彈藥和火炮支援，加之打防禦戰相對來講有利守方，因此對於俄軍來講現在成功防守遠比主動進攻重要。其實，烏克蘭本次在西方重新武裝下的反擊，真正的目標仍然是克裡米亞，所謂東南部的反擊仍然是佯攻。真正的軍事行動主要針對的還是克裡米亞，所有的軍事行動都是圍繞此而展開。收回克裡米亞就使得俄羅斯的軍事行動失去意義，況且打下克裡米亞在軍事上難度不大，只要拿下赫爾松就等於將其完全掌控。

 

因此，烏軍並不期望在防守嚴密的烏東取得重大進展，而是希望奪回南部地區，切斷俄軍東部和南部的聯繫，至於黑海艦隊旗艦都被多次重創，將來有了空優配合不難消滅。烏軍現在的反攻顯得非常有節制，投入的軍力和火力有限，事實上烏克蘭在軍事上的進展，與其得到西方軍事援助密切相關，進展小反而得到的軍援大。現在從裝甲武器到遠端導彈等都已經到位，北約的先進戰機也會參戰，因此烏克蘭完全沒有必要在地面攻擊中投入大部份力量，而是逐步進攻等待軍援現在的反攻都是打給西方看的。對於烏克蘭來說俄烏戰爭長期化對其有益無害，戰爭發展下去烏克蘭必定很快加入北約，並且還將會得到大量的軍事經濟援助，而且北約成員國也會更大規模間接參展。

 

俄羅斯已經在戰爭中傷亡20多萬軍隊，現在不斷進行軍事動員增兵下只能勉強維持局面。最大的問題除了內部軍事不穩發生政變外，最大的麻煩是軍備彈藥不足後勤困難。按照統計每天損耗數十套各種武器裝備和大量人員，如此每月的消耗巨大難於維持。即便是將幾十年前的裝備和大量缺乏軍事訓練的武裝平民派到前線也無濟於事，西方的目的開宗明義要打擊到俄羅斯不能成為潛在的軍事威脅為止，言下之意就是無限消耗對方的裝備，人員，物資和資金等。只要消耗高於補充剩下的就是時間問題。俄羅斯歷史上就是缺乏軍事方略只重視短期利益，既非善戰也無謀略但勇於拼消耗不怕犧牲生命和資源。戰爭進行到現在西方內部已經統一認識，就是俄羅斯願意打多久歐美就奉陪到底。特朗普回歸利用私人關係儘快結束戰爭的可能性不大，而只要拜登民主黨控制權力就會將俄烏戰爭進行到底。

 

西方對烏克蘭的援助策略是小步快跑加一步到位，不斷試探俄羅斯的底線然後將先進裝備一步到位，更為重要的是北約的部隊下一步會擴大參展的規模，也就是直接等待烏軍對俄軍繼續消耗到一定程度，以雇傭軍和志願軍的名義直接軍事投入，其實現在已經有大量歐美軍事人員參戰，且不說近在咫尺的波蘭，甚至日本在近日都有數千軍隊，以退伍軍人的名義在烏克蘭戰場作戰，美軍更是派駐10萬軍隊嚴陣以待。所謂的北歐先進軍機投入戰爭，實際上目前不是等待對烏克蘭飛行員的培訓，而是歐美援助的各型號飛機多數是退役型號早已停飛，現在需要招募和整訓歐美的飛行員直接參戰，然後再輔以烏克蘭空軍配合，就烏克蘭自身根本沒有足夠飛行員能夠短時間內達到操控西方戰機作戰的程度，而且東歐國家援助的蘇式飛機很快就會消耗殆盡，所以歐美直接參戰下烏克蘭才能獲得空優，如此俄羅斯的陣地防禦才會受到真正的軍事壓力。只要將支援前線的中近程炮火摧毀，對於俄軍的防禦來說幾乎就是致命，並且利用空優打開缺口裝甲部隊突擊穿插，一點突破則整個防線難於維繫。

 

目前最大的疑問不在烏克蘭的軍事行動而在俄羅斯，簡而言之普京還能撐多久，雖然很快地結束了所謂軍事政變，但是軍事進展不利軍心不穩，雖然還能控制住內部但今後發展難於預料。如果撤軍勢必影響到普總的統治，但戰爭長期發展下去又難於維繫。從戰場上的態勢看逐步消耗難於承受，現在只能消極防禦維持現狀。況且現在即便是想和談烏克蘭也不會接受。戰爭發展到現在烏克蘭已經事實上成為了北約國家，而且被訓練裝備成有豐富實戰經驗和作戰能力的西方軍隊，甚至是整個歐洲戰鬥力最強的部隊，等後續軍援到達後將成為歐洲最先進的軍事力量。而且得到整個北約及其50多個成員國的政經軍事背書。俄羅斯將前蘇聯剩下的裝備家底越打越少，烏克蘭獲得的軍備物資則越打越多，現在50多個國家都在開動軍工生產線，大量軍事物資被生產提供到前線完全不計成本。烏克蘭成了全球先進軍事裝備的校驗場，各國現存庫存彈藥裝備的焚毀地。

 

俄羅斯從中長線來說即便是有能力將戰爭長期化，除了核武威脅外最重要的就是控制戰爭的規模，實行有限度下的可控消耗，類似戰爭初期的全面軍事行動勢必會停止，因為俄軍沒有能力也沒有資源繼續維持下去。因此，現在的陣地戰則成了唯一選擇。即便最後丟失烏南和克裡米亞也要盡力維持住烏東。目前對於普總最重要的是迅速清楚內亂影響和控制住國內。至於烏克蘭的反攻盡力應付一下就可以了。

Shiori Mizukoshi 水越しおり

 

兎月りお

 

Sarina Kashiwagi 柏木さりな

 

The real boss behind Chelsea was Putin and now is His Majesty

 

The decline of Chelsea this season is a political issue rather than sports. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian owner was implicated in his close relationship with Putin, so he was suppressed and forced to give up the club, considering that after the assassination of a former Russian agent many years ago.

According to the continental policy of the United Kingdom for a century, how could it stand by and do nothing to Ukraine, it is certain to suppress Russia, no matter in any forms, including football. The final selection of the American boss was the intervention of the British government, because the British royal family has many fans of the Blues. The Clear water investment company behind the American has a mysterious background. As usual, as long as the Americans take over the club, it will definitely cause chaos for several years in the Premier League.

The sudden contract of the British native coach was also due to political reasons, which completely decoupled Chelsea from the Russian background. The German meritorious coach was implicated and fired. Another reason was that he refused to join C Ronald. The boss is very fancy about business factors. The British New coach was born in a small club without any brilliant record at all. He likes to change team formation randomly. In a small club, it works but it will not be success in a big club. Without a main lineup, it is difficult to cope with various frequent matches. After winning a few victories by luck at first, he was finally fired.

As for Lampard to take over, it is even more of a disaster. He is the coach with the worst level of ability. Unless reputation, he doesn't even have the qualifications to be a coach. His problem is that has zero knowledge of soccer tactics. Although he can train youngsters, the real reason is that he has no prestige among the old players.

The boss actually spent 300 million pounds to buy many players, but turned a blind eye to the team's lack of forwards. The entire team was chaotic, but unfortunately most of them were capable players. The low quality of coaches led to the collapse of the entire team, and it is a blessing to be able to maintain the current results. The owner's direct intervention in the team was also the cause of the chaos, and he acted arbitrarily without knowing football at all, and even fought with audience. After Abramovich left, he left rich resources for the team. It is not difficult to rebuild the team as long as it is based on this.

Looking at it now, it is really not easy to find an internationally renowned and capable coach, let alone a club like Chelsea who often speculates on coaches. The reason for this is that the Blues are indirectly the Russian President Putin's team. Abramovich is nothing more than the boss behind the scenes. The boss is actually the general manager. He uses state resources to fund the club's infiltration in all aspects of Europe. Naturally, it doesn't care about the coach's fee.

Russia has been suppressed for many years due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In fact, the former boss’s investment in Chelsea has decreased, and even reached the point of balance of payments. It is only thanks to Putin's unlimited support that it has survived until now, so the former boss needs to have a certain good result every year in order to please the real boss. Now President is being beaten by everyone because of the war, so naturally he doesn't care about the team's performance anymore.

The attitude of the British government is even more important to the football club. Now that the situation of the Russia-Ukraine war is clear, it is difficult for Russia to win, and Ukraine even has some advantages, so the British government's suppression of the Blues will come to an end. From now on, it should be said that Chelsea not in great danger again.

At least politically, there are no worries about the future, and the next step is team reconstruction. There will be more than three months after the season is over. As long as the financial advantage can be maintained under normal circumstances, the team's recovery will not be a problem at all. Of course, it must be operated by professionals and the boss will no longer directly intervene. As for the future development of the club, you can get a glimpse of the operation during the summer vacation.

Before, there were rumors that were unfavorable to Blue Moon, even saying that they would be disqualified from the Premier League due to violations, and vaguely pointed at the Middle East consortium behind it. Because of this Russo-Ukraine war, some countries in the Middle East are biased towards Russia. They will be implicated and decoupled sooner or later, after Russia is completely resolved. The Premier League will never watch Manchester City win consecutive championships for many years. If the capital entry of the dictatorship in the Middle East is restricted, the overall structure of the Premier League will definitely change. That's also why Newcastle hasn't expanded aggressively yet. 

Britain's continental policy is that as long as there is a strong power in the European continent, it will inevitably cooperate with its opponents to carry out a comprehensive suppression. Now dozens of countries in Europe, America and NATO are fighting against Russia, asking money for money and guns for guns to carry out all-round Cold War-style suppression, which naturally includes football, the most important part of showing soft power. Therefore, Chelsea, who have dominated Europe for more than 20 years, must be the first team to be affected. From a positive point of view, the fate of the Blues is not pessimistic, as the boss was Putin, but now is the British government. The former Prince Charles, who has just become the king, is said to be a Blues fan.

​

 

Koharu Nishino 西野小春

 

車路士幕後真正的老闆原本是普京現在是新國王陛下

 

車路士本賽季的滑落是政治問題不是體育問題，俄烏戰爭爆發後老闆阿布因與普京的密切關係受到牽連，因此受到打壓被迫放棄了球會，甚至以一種毋庸置疑被羞辱的形式，考慮到多年前因俄羅斯前特工被暗殺後，他一直就被以各種理由打壓，現在的離開只是總爆發而已。按照英國百年來的大陸政策，怎麼會對烏克蘭袖手旁觀，況且已在各方面支持前者十年的前提下，打壓俄羅斯是肯定的，無論是以任何形式包括足球。所以最後選擇美國老闆是英國政府的幹預，因為英國皇室有很多藍軍的粉絲。美國人背後的清水投資公司背景神秘，照例只要美國人接手球會，在英超來講必定會造成數年的混亂。

 

突然讓英國本土籍教練撲達上任也是政治原因，讓車路士與俄國背景徹底脫鉤，德國功勳教練杜曹因此受到牽連被炒，其中還有另一個原因是他拒絕C朗的加入，這是老闆非常看中的商業因素。樸達出身小球會毫無亮麗戰績可言，喜歡胡亂變陣在小球會是客觀環境所限，在大球會自然行不通，沒有主力陣容難於應付各類頻密賽事。只有在此基礎上增減變通，才能保持球隊的穩定。最初靠運氣贏得幾場勝利後最終顯原型被炒，就從他看中購入的古古尼亞的低下水準，就可以看出他的無能。至於讓林帕得接任更是災難，他是能力水準最差的教練，除了有些球員聲譽外一無是處，根本連當教練的資格都沒有。他的問題甚至不是胡亂變陣，而是對戰術零認知。雖然能夠培養新人，其真實原因是他在老隊員中毫無威信。

 

老闆居然花3億元胡亂買入多名球員，但是卻對球隊缺前鋒視而不見，整個球隊混亂不堪人員雜遝，可惜的是其中絕大多數都是有能力的球員。當然，薛韋爾，占士，簡迪等球員的長期受傷，導致了球隊的成績下降。哈佛斯本身打前鋒根本不合適。杜曹時代喜歡無鋒陣他偶有佳作，但真頂到鋒線能力有限，而且此人踢球佛系，雖然技術好但是無拼勁，只能看情況使用。教練素質的低下導致整個球隊崩潰，能夠保持現在的中下游成績已屬萬幸。老闆對球隊的直接幹預也是禍亂原因，而且在他完全不懂足球的情況下任意妄為，甚至與球迷在觀眾席上打罵。雖然他出手豪爽且財技高超，但對球會來講並無幫助。阿布走後給球隊留下豐厚資源，只要以此為基礎重建球隊其實不難。

 

客觀上將現在的如此亂象也是情有可原的，從上賽季開始藍軍受到空前打壓，甚至連參賽路費都不能負擔，各種壓力下人心思變但仍然取得了較好成績。現在據說球會將聘請普捷天奴接手教練，他雖然長期在熱刺但算不上頂級教練，所幸對英超熟悉戰術素養頗佳，中短期內對於球隊的穩定有利。之前據說球會有找過摩連奴但被拒絕，羅馬當時仍有歐洲賽資格，況且藍軍本身變數甚多，時機不好教練自然不會貿然答應。他才是車路士新教練最佳人選，而且他還是有意於藍軍無奈找他的時間不對。從現在看真要找個國際知名有能力的教練亦非易事，何況是車仔這種炒教練家常便飯的球會。究其原因藍軍間接就是俄羅斯總統普京的球隊，阿布無非是人頭幕後的老闆其實是普總，利用國家資源資助球會在歐洲進行各方面的滲透，自然不會在乎不值一提的炒教練的費用。俄羅斯因俄烏問題被打壓多年，實際上老闆對車仔的投資減少了，甚至達到了收支平衡的地步，表面上看是能源收入下降，實際上幕前老闆的真實資產並不多，完全是靠普京的支持才撐到現在，所以老闆需要每年有一定的戰績才能討好大老闆。現在普總因戰爭被搞得人人喊打，自然顧不上球隊的成績了。

 

英國政府的取態對於球會更是重要，如果要置之死地球會必定被滅，這甚至被視為對普京本人的一種打壓，現在俄烏戰爭形勢明朗俄羅斯難於取勝，烏克蘭佔據部份優勢甚至可能反勝，因此英國政府對於藍軍的打壓也會告一段落。之前甚至為了洗白買入名不見經傳的烏克蘭球員梅迪克，此人能力甚至不能進入一線隊。只要英國政府不再打壓球隊無憂，否則必定是在劫難逃，從現在看應該說車仔危險不大。起碼在政治上已經無後顧之憂了，接下來是球隊重建的問題。賽季完成後有3個多月的時間，只要在正常情況下能夠保持資金優勢，球隊恢復根本不成問題，當然必須是在專業人士操作，老闆不再直接幹預的情況下。至於球會今後的發展只要看暑假球會的操作即能一窺端倪。整體藍軍的大動盪是命運所致，避免不了也無可奈何。

 

之前，曾經傳出對於藍月亮不利的傳聞，甚至稱因違規將被取消英超資格，而且隱約劍指背後的中東財團。因本次俄烏戰爭中東部份國家偏向俄國，甚至和強國走動頗近。中東專制國家對於歐洲來講雖然都是金主，但是遲早也會受到牽連下被脫鉤，時間在俄羅斯被徹底解決之後。因此藍軍現在洗白也是走在風氣之先，正如金元足球，起用年輕教練，不斷炒教練等，都是藍軍帶起的風氣。中東背景的球隊遲早被清算，況且英超也絕不會看著曼城多年連續奪冠。如中東獨裁政權的資金進入受限制，英超整體的格局必定改變。這就是紐卡素還沒有大肆擴張的原因。

 

英國的大陸政策是只要歐洲大陸有強權興起，必然聯合其對手進行全面打壓。現在是歐美北約數十個國家對抗俄國，要錢給錢要槍給槍進行全方位的冷戰式打壓，自然也包括足球這個顯示軟實力的最重要部份。因此稱霸歐洲20餘年的車路士肯定是首波受到影響的球隊。現在隨著俄烏戰場的大局已定，即便是繼續拖延俄國也不可能取勝，烏克蘭已經是形式上的北約國家和歐盟成員。因此整個歐洲的情勢發展，遠比俄烏戰爭開打時明朗。俄國正在被長期戰爭消耗拖得筋疲力盡，普總本人也是面目腫脹進退維穀。從積極的意義來講藍軍的命運並不悲觀，就看現在的老闆其實是英國政府操作下的代理人，整個藍軍時間都是政府導演的。他也算是人頭車路士背後真正的老闆，原本是普京現在是英國政府。實際就是剛當上國王的查理斯前王子，他據說也是藍軍球迷。

 

Shiori Mizukoshi

 

近藤あさみ

 

高梨あい