Too little money and 10 divisions are not enough for Putin to take Ukraine

 

Russia has 100,000 troops in Ukraine and Belarus, and has adopted military means to attack Ukraine in two directions at the same time. Objectively speaking, if Russia wants to annex Ukraine, there is no problem militarily. Ukraine itself has limited military strength, and it is impossible for NATO to mobilize troops to confront Russia on a large scale in the short to medium term, and this is when the epidemic situation in various countries is very serious.

 

Putin is now asking NATO to sign an agreement to give up Ukraine to join NATO, or resort to military means or allow eastern Ukraine to return to Russia independently. Although Europe and the United States have threatened not to accept it, and will impose severe sanctions on Russia like North Korea, excluding it from the US dollar financial system, this will limit the energy exports to Europe that Russia relies on. The latter is trying to increase energy exports to China to make up for it. In fact, the price of Russia's energy exports to Europe is much lower than that China, which is entirely a political act and not entirely considering economic factors. Energy export to Europe is Putin's only trump card against Europe and the United States. If it is restricted, it means losing the ability to confront.

 

Russia's military power is less than one-tenth of that of the former Soviet Union. At present, only nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines can threaten NATO. If Ukraine is fully occupied by military means, 100,000 troops are simply not enough in number, and they may face the challenge of protracted war. At that time, the super-strong force fought against Afghanistan for ten years and finally withdrew its troops. According to foreign media reports, Russia has accumulated more than 100 billion US dollars to cope with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis during the recent energy rise, but this amount is not enough in the long run. Moreover, even if Ukraine is fully occupied, it will not be able to cover this country current bad economy, and Russia has no long-term consumption of economic strength at all.

 

The more practical operation is to win eastern Ukraine, but this is equivalent to recognizing the independence of western Ukraine. Europe and the United States can declare that western Ukraine will directly join NATO. In this way, not only can troops be directly stationed there, but strategic missile defense systems can also be deployed in a grand manner. At most, it is to repeat the pattern of the Cold War in the past, to directly confront Russia in Ukraine, and to prolong the consumption of politics, economy, military and diplomacy. In this way, according to Russia's current overall withered economy, it is even more difficult to bear the burden under the severe epidemic.

 

Although Putin now theoretically does not have a political obstacle to get permanent power, but if Russia starts a war abroad, it will be unfavorable to his long-term governance, so he can control the domestic situation now, mainly relying on the profit of energy exports to maintain the economy. The support of the financial oligarchs, and the strict control of internal opposition power and the media. In addition, Europe and the United States are now shifting their power to the Asia-Pacific region to target their competitors. After the hastily withdrawn troops from Afghanistan, a power vacuum has emerged in Central Asia.

 

If Europe and the United States impose severe financial sanctions on it, it will inevitably affect the interests of the financial oligarchs. The economy will be hit under the restriction of energy exports, and the ruble will definitely be severely impacted and collapsed. It is unrealistic to try to make up for the losses by increasing energy exports to China. After all, China cannot absorb all the losses of the other party, and this is equivalent to directly confronting the West with Russia, and it is equivalent to being coerced into a Cold War directly with Europe and the United States, and it is under the leadership of Russia. Even a hot war will potentially break out. Although rivals' relations with Europe and the United States have deteriorated in recent years, they are far from a overall conflict. Moreover, the local epidemic situation in Russia is bad. With Europe and the United States facing the threat of the collapse of medical systems and resources and  Russia also confront the same situation. It must turn its attention to the outside world.

 

In fact, the Russian media reported very limited coverage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which means that there was no full-scale war mobilization. And Putin has previously emphasized that he has never said that there will be military action against Ukraine. The last Russian-Ukrainian conflict finished, after the Russian economy was suppressed and the ruble was hit, Putin suddenly withdrew his troops. This is also the case this time. If no military measures are taken around March, it will be difficult for the situation to develop further. After all, Europe and the United States have also begun to make various preparations for this. It seems that although NATO cannot accept all the conditions put forward by Russia, it can promise to slow down the pace of Ukraine's accession to NATO, and the two sides can secretly compromise, at least make a commitment to maintain the status quo.

 

Putin has been suppressed internationally in recent years, and he has continued to seek diplomatic breakthroughs without success. Therefore, it is possible to seek more voice in diplomacy through this incident. Russia's overall economic strength is now incomparable to that of South Korea. The total amount is only equal to one province of a neighboring country. How can it have the strength to engage in a full-scale Cold War-style long-term confrontation? If this is the case, the internal economy will collapse soon, and the foundation of Putin's long-term rule will be lost. Russia's current toughness is actually consistent, the purpose is to force a higher bargaining chip.

 

10 divisions on the Ukrainian border are simply not enough to fully capture the Ukrainian border, not to mention that the armored forces are still difficult to resist NATO's air power. The last time the riots in eastern Ukraine were entirely caused by mercenaries sent by Russia. If they really wanted to return to Russia, they had long been independent last time.